Goal 6
Understand the principles that govern changes
in ecosystems on Earth and shape the future biosphere.
Elucidate the drivers and effects of ecosystem change as a basis for projecting likely future changes on time scales ranging from decades to millions of years.
Life on Earth is based on a series of interdependent metabolic sequences that stabilize planetary chemistry through feedbacks with physical forcings. This network of metabolic sequences has self-organized into ecosystems that are themselves interdependent. While evolutionary biologists try to understand a posteri selective forces that led to the establishment of specific ecosystems in Earth’s history, it is far more difficult to employ such principles to formulate accurate predictions about the state of future ecosystems, especially when changes in planetary conditions are rapid.
In the context of Earth’s ecosystems, astrobiology is challenged to understand how "resilient" life really is on a planetary scale, to develop mathematical representations of stabilizing feedbacks that permit the continuity of life in the face of rapidly changing physical conditions, and to understand the limits of these stabilizing feedbacks.
- Objective 6.1—Develop
biogeochemical models. Develop predictive
models that integrate biogeochemical cycles of multiple elements with
environmental change (both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic) and
biological evolution, in order to determine the underpinnings of ecosystem
resilience and vulnerability to change on time scales relevant to the
history of life on Earth.
- Objective 6.2—Relate environmental changes to the cycling of elements and to the biota, communities, and ecosystems. Conduct laboratory and field-based observational programs that relate the effects of environmental changes during Earth history to the cycling of key elements. Relate such changes in elemental cycling to effects on the structure and functioning of organisms, populations, communities, and entire ecosystems.