Owen Toon
NASA Ames Research Center
We review the major mechanisms proposed to cause extinctions at
the Cretaceous - Tertiary geological boundary following an asteroid
impact. We then discuss how the proposed extinction mechanisms
may relate to the environmental consequences of asteroid and comet
impacts in general. Our chief goal is to provide relatively simple
prescriptions for evaluating the importance of colliding objects
over a range of energies and compositions; but we also stress
that there are many uncertainties. We conclude that, for impact
energies below about 104 Mt (i.e. impact frequencies
less than one in 6x104 years, corresponding to comets
and asteroids with diameters smaller than about 400 m and 650
m respectively), blast damage, earthquakes and fires should be
important on a scale of 104 or 105 km2,
which corresponds to the area damaged in many natural disasters
of recent history. However, tsunami excited by marine impacts
could be more damaging, flooding a kilometer of coastal plain
over entire ocean basins. In the energy range of 104
to 105 Mt (intervals up to 3x105 yrs; comets
and asteroids with sizes up to 850 m and 1.4 km, respectively)
water vapor injections and ozone loss become significant on the
global scale. In our nominal model such an impact does not inject
enough submicrometer dust into the stratosphere to produce major
adverse effects, but if a higher fraction of pulverized earth
reaches the stratosphere than we think likely, stratospheric dust
(causing global cooling) would also be important in this energy
range. This energy range is a conservative lower limit where damage
might occur beyond the experience of human history. The energy
range from 105 to 106 Mt (intervals up to
2X106 years; comets and asteroid up to 1.8 and 3 km
diameter) is transitional between regional and global effects.
Stratospheric dust, sulfates released from within impacting asteroids,
and soot from extensive wildfires sparked by thermal radiation
from the impact can produce climatologically significant global
optical depths on the order of 10. Moreover, the ejecta plumes
of these impacts may produce enough NO from shock-heated air to
destroy the ozone shield. Between 106 and 107
Mt (intervals up to 1.5x107 years; comet and asteroid
diameters up to 4 and 6.5 km respectively) dust and sulfate levels
would be high enough to reduce light levels below those necessary
for photosynthesis. Ballistic ejecta reentering the atmosphere
as shooting stars would set fires over regions exceeding 107
km2, and the resulting smoke would reduce light levels
even further. At energies above 107 Mt. blast and earthquake
damage reach the regional scale (106 km2).
Tsunami cresting to 100 m and flooding 20 km inland could sweep
the coastal zones of one of the world's ocean basins. Fires would
be set globally. Light levels may drop so low from the smoke,
dust and sulfate that vision is not possible. At energies approaching
109 Mt (>108 years) the ocean surface
waters may be acidified globally by sulfur from the interiors
of comets and asteroids. The Cretaceous-Tertiary impact in particular
struck evaporite substrates that very likely generated a dense
widespread sulfate aerosol layer with consequent climatic effects.
The combination of all of these physical effects would surely
represent a devastating stress on the global biosphere.
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